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THOMPSON ON TECH Are cellphones meant to save time -- or waste
it? These days, mobiles are the new Game Boys By
Clive Thompson Friday, August 30, 2002
Alex Bajin is addicted. Every day for a year now, he's played the
video game Atomic Dove, which is like a digital version of the board
game RISK: Combatants build up empires and armies, then band
together to trounce the most powerful players. "You're trying to
manage this whole virtual world, sending out spies and taking out
enemies. It's like playing God-pretty cool," Bajin says.
Except this 24-year-old isn't playing on his Sony PlayStation.
When Bajin wants his Atomic Dove fix, he whips out his mobile phone,
and starts mashing the keypad and staring at text on its tiny
screen. His opponents are doing the same, from as far away as New
Zealand and France. They battle one another all day long, with Bajin
checking in several times an hour-even while driving to work as a
tennis instructor at York University in Toronto.
"I was once at a red light and made this crucial attack. Then I
thought, Damn, I'm going to have to defend myself in a few minutes,
but I'll be doing 180 on the highway!"
And you thought Game Boys were seductive. Mobile phones are
becoming today's new portable arcade. In the last two years, "data
services" have been major selling points for cellphone makers, and
customers have gone mad for games. Anywhere from 70 to 150 games are
available, depending on the phone. It could be as simple as poker,
or as complex as a jet-fighter simulation based on the movie Top
Gun. On the Bell Mobility network alone, more than 50% of all phone
web-browser usage is devoted to gaming, with users paying $5 for 100
minutes of play.
Industry analysts at The Yankee Group predict mobile-phone
"entertainment" (gaming, jokes, horoscopes) will be a $1.2-billion
industry in three years' time, and ARC Group predicts the number of
cellphone gamers will reach 850 million by 2006.
Consider this an irony of our digital age. We create all these
nifty tools to improve efficiency-but wind up using them to goof
off.
"I like to say that people use their wireless devices either to
save time or to kill time," jokes Ken Truffen, Bell Mobility's
director of wireless internet and data development. "They play games
waiting for the bus. They play games in boring meetings." As he
points out, e-mail and news-headlines-which everyone thought would
be the killer apps for mobile data-trail in popularity. Truffen
himself is hooked on Bell's version of Who Wants To Be a
Millionaire, based on the TV show.
For companies like Bell, however, this isn't about trivia games
and fighting aliens-they're also fighting for revenue. Mobile phones
are a brutally competitive market. Average revenue per cellphone in
Canada plummeted to $47 in 2001 from $75 in 1995, and is slated to
fall to $36 by 2005, according to IDC Canada. "Service providers are
really in a sort of panic to figure out new ways to make money,"
says The Yankee Group's Jeremy Depow.
And since it's driven by highly addictive behaviour, gaming could
become a lucrative new revenue stream. Users might think twice
before shelling out $2 more a month for call-forwarding, but
game-players don't hesitate. They'll pay. Already, Telus Mobility
(which offers the Atomic Dove game) makes "a few bucks" per month on
most players, says Robert Blumenthal, vice-president of products and
services. A small number of hard-core players even rack up "a few
hundred a month."
The video-game industry generates more revenue than Hollywood's
box-office take, and this is a fresh slice of that pie. "[Players]
will buy a few games per month. That's $40 right there," says
Blumenthal. "They'll go to the arcade and spend more. All together,
they might spend $100 a month. We're only a small part of that
now-but we're going to grow."
What's more, games are the first step in a crucial part of
technological development. Two years ago, when mobile providers
began spending tens of millions to create the "mobile internet," no
one had a clue what users would do with it. It is the classic
paradigm: Build first, ask questions later. The problem is, if you
don't find a compelling application quickly, you wind up like
Motorola and Iridium-spending billions on a network that isn't
used.
Even more important, games may be the perfect testing ground in
the development of genuinely business-friendly applications. Video
games had a catalytic effect on the computer industry 10 years ago.
Players demanded low-cost but high-performing computers capable of
rendering gorgeous 3D worlds; in producing such devices, the
industry inadvertently paved the way for graphic business tools,
from web browsers to PowerPoint to Flash animation.
Though today's phone games are pretty low-tech-mostly just static
images and choose-your-own-adventure text games-developers are
learning how to pack enormous functionality on a tiny screen and
nine-key pad. "You have to be really smart with how you design these
things," warns Brian Baglow of the British game designer Digital
Bridges Ltd. (which made the Star Trek game I've been playing
lately). "Because if you ask users to hit a button 1,000 times, they
will go crazy."
In Vancouver, AirGames Wireless Inc.-makers of Atomic Dove-have
released a stock-trading game called Mogul, and it's so seamlessly
crafted that a real-life brokerage might want to steal its design.
"Every button counts when you're using something out on the road and
your attention is divided," says Frederick Ghahramani, AirGames'
managing director. "When you're trading stocks, you want to just
push it and go."
The phone-gaming trend will only accelerate. By the end of 2002,
most Canadian carriers will offer phones that can download and run
Java-based applications. Phones will become much more like
PalmPilots-equipped with such offerings as "twitch" (action) games
like wrestling and motocross-racing.
"We'll have much more arcade-style stuff," predicts David Neale,
a vice-president at Rogers AT&T Wireless. And when carriers
finally finish building their long-awaited "3G" networks-next year?
In three years? Nobody really knows-phones will get DSL-class
download speeds. That means games could include the same rich 3D
graphics you see on your computer.
For now, players like Bajin are happy just to be killing
opponents any way they can. When I last checked in with him, he was
setting up a banzai attack with a player in Vancouver. "There's this
guy out there going, 'You'll never beat me.' We're taking him
out."
Talk about a brutal game of phone tag.
WHAT'S NEXT
IN ONE YEAR:
In Canada, more than 50% of all phone-data usage is for games and
entertainment. Top-end Java-ready phones begin to ship, but few
games exist. Telltale trend: Bored senseless in a meeting, you play
a game of hangman.
IN THREE YEARS:
Mobile-phone gaming is a $1.2-billion business globally,
according to The Yankee Group. Java-based phones download everything
from Tetris-style games to old-school arcade hits like Space
Invaders. Telltale trend: You kill two hours a day secretly battling
your co-workers.
IN FIVE YEARS:
Phones are as rich visually as old Sony PlayStations. Telltale
trend: With productivity down the toilet, your boss implements a "no
gaming" lock on all company mobile phones. Time to go back to
computer
solitaire. |